How Does Quantum Computing Threaten Crypto?
The Quantum Threat to Cryptocurrency
How Current Crypto Security Works
Every crypto wallet has a private key and a public key. Your public key (or address) is visible to everyone. Your private key must stay secret. The security assumption: it's computationally infeasible to derive the private key from the public key.
This assumption holds for classical computers — but not for quantum computers.
Shor's Algorithm: The Quantum Threat
In 1994, mathematician Peter Shor developed an algorithm that runs efficiently on quantum computers and can:
- Factor large integers exponentially faster than any classical algorithm
- Compute discrete logarithms (the basis of ECC) exponentially faster
This means a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm can derive a private key from a public key. Every Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other crypto address that has ever revealed its public key (i.e., sent any transaction) becomes vulnerable.
The Scale of the Threat
- Bitcoin: ~4 million BTC in addresses that have revealed public keys
- Ethereum: Virtually all active addresses have revealed public keys
- Total at risk: Potentially hundreds of billions of dollars
Timeline: When Will Quantum Computers Be Dangerous?
| Year | Expected Quantum Computing Milestone |
|---|---|
| 2025–2026 | 1,000–10,000 logical qubits |
| 2028–2030 | Commercial quantum advantage |
| 2030–2035 | Potentially cryptographically relevant quantum computers |
NIST estimates quantum computers could break ECC with as few as 4,000 logical qubits. Current machines have hundreds — but progress is accelerating.
Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL)
The threat exists TODAY even without a quantum computer. Nation-state actors are harvesting encrypted data now to decrypt it when quantum computers arrive. Any crypto transaction made today could be retroactively analysed.
BMIC's Solution
BMIC implements NIST FIPS 203/204/205 — cryptographic algorithms designed to resist quantum attacks. BMIC wallets are quantum-safe from day one, not after an upgrade that may never come.
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